Bank Panic in Second Life Prompts Battlefield Promotion of Regulators reveals interesting parallels between physical and virtual worlds—it’s real money, after all.
“What? I can’t go to the grocery store! My bank’s automated teller machine refuses to dispense cash, and I’m planning a big cook-out tonight!” What’s an avatar to do?
It turns out that an inworld bank failure this summer cost residents about $750,000 USD and led to a run on Second Life banks, which eventually precipitated intervention by the highest authority available, the virtual world’s creator, Linden Labs. But the root cause may well have been LL’s earlier intervention in the economy by banning gambling on the site.
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U.S. Economy Due for Sideways Year—Special Effects by Presidential Election—Uncomfortable Long-term Questions Waiting in Wings
 The Executives’ Club of Chicago assembled an all-star panel to give Midwest business leaders their guidance for various aspects of the U.S. economy in 2008. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Mesirow Financial and Robert “Bob” Froehlich, Chairman of the Investment Strategy Committee, Deutsche Asset Management returned, and the mystery panelist was Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer, Harris Private Bank. They broke out their respective crystal balls for 2008, along with comedic effects. The session was brilliantly moderated by Terry Savage, Financial Columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times who didn’t miss a beat and extracted specific predictions from panelists.
Panelists agreed that the U.S. economy would struggle in 2008, but it would move mostly sideways, probably eking out a 1-2% gain for the year after an unsatisfying first half. All panelists predicted that the Dow would touch 14,000 sometime during the year. Froehlich again emphasized the importance of looking beyond the U.S. for investments. Swonk and Ablin were less outspoken but had high non-U.S. allocations in their recommended […]
Globalization’s 21st Century Makeover explains how “emerging” market companies are rapidly becoming global players—to whit, new owners for Jaguar and Land Rover.
 Emerging countries have long been regarded by globalizers as targets for exploitation, but 21st century market forces are turning legacy thinking on its head, which produces disruption and its sibling, opportunity.
The conventional thinking goes that emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) have talented knowledge/human capital resources that can be tapped in outsourcing and offshoring arrangements. Moreover, these workers’ employment in high value knowledge jobs creates a new consumer class among large populations. Emerging countries’ rapidly growing consumer markets stand in sharp contrast to developed countries’, which are flat or shrinking. China and India have been relaxing restrictions on foreign ownership, which has increased FDI, especially in China, enabling foreign companies to invest in and buy BRIC companies.
However, the big story in 2007 was the opposite:
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Disrupting the Automobile explores how several ventures are changing the rules of an intractable industry.
The automobile is a personal manifestation of the ultimate promise of the Industrial Economy—that physical power is essentially free—because it enables people to move quickly and easily. People just love cars because it is immensely satisfying to glide effortlessly (traffic notwithstanding ,^) from one place to another with a high degree of individual freedom.
However, as 2007 draws to a close, autos’ current reliance on fossil fuels makes it increasingly obvious that we need to change the rules. First, new wealth in emerging markets is dramatically increasing auto ownership and its concomitant demand for oil. Increased demand and uncertain supply will undoubtedly prove unsustainable in the medium term. Second, and even more daunting, is the carbon/climate change problem, which is far more life-changing in the long term. Petroleum and coal are the largest contributors to man-made carbon emissions.
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Will China’s Rise Lead to an Environmental Catastrophe? summarizes The Economist Chicago debate, examining the environmental fallout of the Chinese economic supernova—sibling rivalry rears its ugly head.
 In 2007, nary an RSS feed or the page of a newspaper (for those still inclined ,^) does not mention China’s exploding impact on the global stage: China is truly an economic supernova, and it is breaking almost any record for development that is laid before it. However, China’s breakneck development is accompanied by grave environmental fallout: for example, as the host of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, the city is designing extreme measures to ensure that the air is clean enough for the athletes to breathe. The chief culprit is coal, a key source for China’s insatiable need for electric power, and a resource that the country has in abundance. For key facts on China, I suggest The Economist’s Country Briefing or CSRA’s Emerging Markets category (in depth) or China tag (mentions).
The Economist and WBEZ 91.5 FM presented an Oxford-style debate on the effect that China’s rise […]
Caterpillar CEO Pitches Free Trade to Business Leaders at Executives’ Club asks whether the U.S. is at turning point with global economy in the balance—A lack of courage?
 James W. Owens, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Inc., beseeched U.S. business and government leaders to find the courage to save free trade. The speaker at the Executives’ Club of Chicago’s Global Leaders Series, Owens addressed a packed house at the Hilton Chicago on 16 October 2007. His speech was immediately followed by the Club’s Technology Conference at which CIOs advised their peers on the emerging role of the CIO in the “networked economy 2.0.”
A Ph.D. economist with extensive global management experience, Owens made a very convincing argument that the U.S. and the global economy are at a turning point. It is time for the U.S. to lead by example to assure the continuance of the free trade juggernaut that has produced so much wealth in the world. If it fails, the world stands before the prospect of sharply curtailed trade.
Following […]
Media Reflects Power Shift away from Producers to Consumers—Glimpses of Consumer Empowerment
 The Executives’ Club of Chicago assembled a visionary panel to give Midwest business leaders their advice for media communications in the (“new” ,^) digital age. Rishad Tobaccowala, CEO, Denuo Group and Chief Innovation Officer, Publicis; Dr. Jim Taylor, Vice Chairman, The Harrison Group and Emily L. Barr, President & General Manager, ABC 7 Chicago were panelists, and Susan D. Whiting, Chairman, Nielsen Media Research moderated the breakfast, which took place 30 January 2007 at Chicago’s Mid-America Club.
Ours is rapidly becoming a P2P world in which individuals communicate with individuals digitally, and this represents a profound shift for media companies, their clients and everyone’s customers. The focus of the morning discussion was “media”—television, print, radio—which are still largely organized to deliver one message to an audience of many. Of course, the “mass” has always been comprised of individuals, but their alternatives to mass media have been few until fairly recently. Now they are tuning out mass messaging in favor of more relevant communications, which increasingly come from—other individuals. Meantime, people are increasingly connected via the Internet (whether through mobile […]
Economic Outlook for 2007 Reveals Pockets of Opportunity + Political Handicapping
 The Executives’ Club of Chicago assembled an all-star panel to give Midwest business leaders their guidance for various aspects of the U.S. economy in 2007. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Mesirow Financial, Alan Murray, Assistant Managing Editor of The Wall Street Journal and Robert “Bob” Froehlich, Chairman of the Investment Strategy Committee, Deutsche Asset Management broke out their respective crystal balls for 2007, and the audience was not disappointed for lack of insight or wit. The session was scintillatingly moderated by Terry Savage, Financial Columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times.
The consensus was that the U.S. economy would have a relatively benign year in 2007. All panelists predicted a higher Dow, and their predictions concurred with Wall Street’s most accurate ,^) indicator, the Super Bowl Predictor. Little of import will happen on the political front, the U.S. economy will grow at a slower pace, and investment returns will be generally highest outside the U.S. Elsewhere, consumer empowerment reared its head in the executive pay issue, […]
China Analysis and Outlook 2007 offers political insight into the global knowledge market.
 The Strategic Management Association, the Harvard Business School and the CDMA sponsored the 2007 China Outlook, which was given by Lyric Hughes-Hale, Founder China Online in Chicago 9 January 2007. Her presentation was preceded by David Hale’s 2007 Economic Forecast.
As a long-time China watcher and analyst, Lyric has rare and unusual insights to which I’ll try to do justice before giving my observations. The Global Human Capital Journal also covered the 2006 China Outlook.
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Economic Insight Behind the Global Knowledge Market
 The Strategic Management Association, the Harvard Business School and the CDMA sponsored the 2007 Economic Forecast featuring David Hale, Chairman of Prince Street Capital Management and Lyric Hughes-Hale, Founder China Online. David has international renown as an international economist, and he presented his encyclopedic knowledge and perspective on global economic trends in Chicago on 9 January 2007. Afterward, Lyric shared her insights on China in Part II of the evening. The Global Human Capital Journal also covered the 2006 Economic Forecast.
David’s forecast was global in scope but adapted to his U.S. audience. It reflected many of the numbers behind the global shift to the Knowledge Economy, and how this is driving global prosperity:
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